Is Non-Consensus Investing Overrated?
Show Notes
Is non-consensus investing overrated—or the secret to venture returns?
a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg is joined by Martín Casado (General Partner, a16z) and Leo Polovets (General Partner, Humba Ventures) to unpack the debate that lit up venture Twitter/X: should founders and VCs chase consensus, or run from it?
They explore what “consensus” really means in practice, how market efficiency shapes venture outcomes, why most companies fail from indigestion, not starvation, and the risks founders face when they’re too far outside consensus.
Timecodes:
Introduction
Defining Consensus and Market Efficiency
The Role of Hot Rounds and Market Signals
Founder Perspective: Risks of Non-Consensus
Investor Perspective: Indigestion vs. Starvation
Market Cycles & Sector Hype
The Evolution of Venture Market Efficiency
Case Studies & Personal Anecdotes
Fund Size, Ownership, and the Impact on Strategy
The Future of Venture: Multi-Stage vs. Seed Funds
Resources:
Find Leo on X: https://x.com/lpolovets
Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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